FOCN45 CWWG 101200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT FRIDAY JULY
10 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...AIR QUALITY WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND THE NWT. HEAT WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AB,
SOUTHERN SK, AND NU. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HEAT FOR SOUTHERN
MB AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN SK MORE HEAT WARNINGS TO COME.

OVERVIEW...ALOFT, WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY REVEALS A TRIO OF UPPER LOWS;
ONE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN, ONE WEST OF GREAT SLAVE LAKE
AND A THIRD OVER NORTHERN LABRADOR. AN UPPER RIDGE SITS BETWEEN THE
ALBERTA AND EAST COAST LOWS OVER MANITOBA AND HUDSON BAY, EXTENDING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NUNAVUT. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SIT
EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PRAIRIES; ONE OVER
CENTRAL ALBERTA AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA.

AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH EASTERN
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NUNAVUT TOWARDS
VICTORIA ISLAND. AN OCCLUDED 994 MB LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.
A WEAK LOW SITS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO, AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CONNECTING TO A FRONTAL WAVE THATS
CONNECTED TO A LEE LOW FORMING IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

DISCUSSION...

WESTERN PRAIRIES...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER
CENTRAL ALBERTA. DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG DRY-LINE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VEERING WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL.

NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH NEAR THE GSL
UPPER LOW.

FURTHER SOUTH, A MULTI-DAY HEAT EVENT WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH
POTENTIAL TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

EASTERN PRAIRIES...WILDFIRES CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THUS
THE AIR QUALITY WARNINGS WILL AS WELL.

THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CLASSIC, WITH A
LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER WEST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND A DRYLINE
EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IT, FOLLOWING THE CONTOURS OF THE WEST
SIDE OF THE WASCANA BASIN. THIS DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND H5 WESTERLIES AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL
CREATE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND BWD AROUND 35-45 KNOTS. DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 20 AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A VERY
UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 2500 TO
3500 J/KG. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE LIKELY, INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS, VERY LARGE HAIL (UP TO BASEBALL SIZE) AND TORNADOES.
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALSO HEIGHTEN THE HEAVY RAIN RISK, WITH 75 MM
PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CAPPING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT LLJ, WITH A CONTINUES LARGE HAIL
THREAT INTO WEST-CENTRAL MANITOBA.

AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER NORTH TO END OFF THE
WEEK, A LONG DURATION HEAT EVENT LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED FOR A LARGE SWATH OF THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW 20S.
HUMIDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 45 ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 28-30 DEGREE RANGE, WITH HUMIDEX
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, SO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONTINUES FOR MANITOBA FOR ANOTHER DAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 32 DEGREE THRESHOLD TODAY IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, HEAT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE REGION, INCLUDING AN ORANGE
LEVEL HEAT WARNINGS FOR MOOSE JAW EAST TO THE MANITOBA BORDER,
YELLOW ELSEWHERE.


WESTERN ARCTIC...SMOKE CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL COMMUNITIES IN
NWT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THE GSL LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
10-20 MM EXPECTED OVER THAT TIMEFRAME.


EASTERN ARCTIC...THE RIDGE OVER THE NWT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
KIVALLIQ TODAY, BRINGING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 20 DEGREES TODAY, BUT WILL
APPROACH MID 20'S BY THURSDAY PROMPTING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ALERTS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE KIVALLIQ INCLUDING CORAL HARBOUR. ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

END/CARLSEN/MARK